We propose to estimate the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS on the availability of caretakers for those affected by AIDS and on financial support for the elderly. The elderly are primary resources for the care of adults with AIDS and for orphans; they are recipients of family income transfers and are thus affected by changes in active life expectancy that can redirect family resources from the elderly to health care. Since population-based data of high quality are not available to address these issues, we propose to use microsimulation models, with input parameters taken from an ongoing study in rural Malawi. The development of the basic model was supported by a supplement from NIA for 2002-2003 (the supplement also supported the costs of a vehicle to be used in STD testing in a survey round in 2004). To date, this supplement has resulted in 1) “Moving and Marrying: Modeling HIV Infection among Newly-Weds in Rural Malawi”, forthcoming July 2003 in Demographic Research and presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, 2002; 2) “A Microsimulation Study of the Effects of Marriage, Divorce and Remarriage on Lifetime Risks of HIV/AIDS in Rural Malawi”, to be presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, 2003. We propose two extensions of this basic model: 1) to estimate orphanhood and the presence of potential caretakers (grandparents, other relatives) for orphans; 2) to distinguish between the effects of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy and active life expectancy, important for assessing the impact of AIDS on the national economy and on household economies, including support for the elderly.
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